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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 15-05-2012 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 15/05/2012 09:18
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Industrial producion is a imely reminder that firstquarter GDP will likely show a contracion."
- Marin van Vliet, an economist at ING
Industrial producion in the Eurozone contracted unexpectedly in March, Eurostat data showed on Monday. Producion fell 0.3 per cent from February, when it rose 0.8 per cent.


USD
"The fear factor is definitely higher."
- Madelynn Matlock, a fund manager at Hunington Asset Advisor
U.S. stocks retreated on Monday on a poliical impasse in Greece.


GBP
"I can’t see even after the next Greek election a government appearing that will be able to do anything else than perhaps manage the Greek exit."
- Simon Sole, chief execuive officer of Exclusive Analysis Ltd.
U.K. stocks tumbled on Monday. The benchmark FTSE 100 Index fell 1.97%, or 110.00 points, to 5,465.52. The FTSE All-Share Index lost 1.94%, or 56.16 points, to 2,841.63.

CHF
"The risk of another Greek election is almost 100 percent while the biggest party according to polls is against the euro."
- Witold Bahrke, a senior strategist at PFA Pension A/S
Swiss stocks lost ground on Monday on concern Greece will exit the Eurozone.

JPY
"Investors find it hard to make a move with uncertainty over Europe, especially Greece."
- Takuya Yamada, a senior porfolio manager at ITC Investment Partners Corp.
Japanese stocks closed mixed on Monday. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.23%, or 20.53 points, to 8,973.84. The broader Topix shed 0.22%, or 1.70, to 756.68.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The European Central Bank likely will need to cut its benchmark interest rate to spur growth this year."
- Commonwealth Foreign Exchange (based on WSJ)
EUR/USD continues to sell off, since there are currently no signs of a possible recovery in the near term. The currency pair is presently attempting to stabilise at 1.2830/18.

GBP/USD
"The U.K. economic backdrop may not be brilliant, but it’s enjoying a haven status because of the political uncertainty in the euro zone."
- Morgan Stanley (based on Bloomberg)
Rally of the Cable has been halted by a tough resistance situated at 1.6106/11, which is reinforced by additional level situated at 1.6150/62, being a temporary cap for the pair.

USD/JPY
"The markets are in risk-off mode because everyone is thinking, if Greece leaves the euro, who's next?"
- Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley (based on Reuters)
USD/JPY was not capable of breaching 80.11 yesterday, but still was able to limit losses near a support at 79.84.

USD/CHF
"The good news is that there are no signs that inflation could threaten the Federal Reserve's expansionary monetary policy any time soon."
- Wells Fargo (based on CNBC)
The pair has extended the rally and soared up to 0.9359. USD/CHF is likely to consolidate before recommencing growth, although a pullback should be mild, not far below 0.9297or 0.9250.
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Expert Commentary
"If Greece left the Eurozone,  the Eurozone would become more stable."
Lutz Karpowitz, Senior Currency Strategist at Commerzbank, on Greece exit from the Eurozone. >>

"Economically, Greece's membership was always somewhat problematic."
Bernd Hayo, Professor at the Philipps University of Marburg, on the ECB monetary policy>>

"Given that Australia's inflation rate is running slightly below the 2-3% target range, its exchange rate remains overvalued."
T. Makin, Professor of Economics, on the Australian Economy>>
Press Review
Europe
Euro Chiefs May Offer Leniency to Greece
European governments hinted at giving Greece extra time to meet budget-cut targets, as long as the financially stricken country’s feuding politicians put together a ruling coalition committed to austerity.

USA
Recession Added Debt, Drained Families' Savings
The economy may be improving but many American families are still weighed down by debt and without a safety net.

Asia & Pacific
Japan consumer confidence little changed in April
Japanese consumer confidence was almost unchanged in April, a Cabinet Office survey showed on Tuesday, supporting the view that the economy remains on a recovery track.
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
As the chart of the currency indices depicts, the single European currency remains closely linked to the Swiss Franc, due to a peg introduced last year. Accordingly, the changes of their values are very much similar.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
The current and the three-year global economic sentiment indices deteriorated slightly in April to 0.49 and 0.64 points respectively. The six month economic sentiment index improved to 0.54 from 0.52 in March, according to a poll conducted by Dukascopy Bank SA.
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Global Stock Market Review
S&P
S&P 500 index traded nearly flat on Tuesday as investors attempted to incorporate into share prices the outcomes of French and Greek elections.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average index traded edged lower on Monday as the victory of anti-bailout forces in Greece and socialist President in France weighed on investor sentiment.

FTSE 100
UK FTSE 100 index moved lower on Tuesday after investors returned from holiday and priced the French election results and Greek inability to form government.
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals  were mixed on Thursday amid improved sentiment in the Euro Zone’s market as Geek socialist party will make the final attempt to form the government.
 
Industrial Metals
Industry metals were slightly higher on Thursday as recent price fall created  bargain buying opportunities for investors.
 
Energy
Energy markets  balanced between easing concerns over the turmoil in the Euro Zone and increase OPEC output.
 
Agriculture
Agricultural commodities  were volatile on Thursday as traders expected USDA report on the world crop estimates. 
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Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/CAD Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
The pair slowed near 1.2880 level, forming a channel down pattern on the 1H chart. The formation has 51% quality along with 78% magnitude.

The price decreased from its high 1.3080 to the support level at 1.2925, then grew to 1.3040, where it was capped. The price has been fluctuating below SMA200 indicator, which shows the pair’s downtrend. Present bias on 1H timeframe is neutral, while on 4H chart it is bearish. If the price decreases,bears might pay their attention to the support level at 1.2869. If the price breaches this level, the initial target for short traders could be around 1.2863.

Economic Research
Commodity currency: Norwegian Krone
The Dukascopy Bank research department presents the final part of its research on commodity currencies. In the current issue we consider commodity sectors’ influence on Norwegian krone exchange rates. Norway is the second largest non-OPEC oil exporter, and energy products make up more than 50% of its exports. It gives us an opportunity to establish whether the exports’ share can be named as one of the relationship-defining factors.
 
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

 


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