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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 01-06-2012 - Afternoon
| Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report Published: 01/06/2012 18:44 | |
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Based on Istat statistics, the Italian unemployment surged to 10.2%, the highest in a 12-year period, exceeding all forecasts. The previous joblessness figures was 9.8% in Q1 2012 and 9.1% in Q4 2011. To ameliorate situation in the labour market, the Senate located in Rome issued an overhaul encompassing regulations regarding the recruitment and termination of employees. USD
S&P 500 has given up 6.3% during May. Kohl Corp fell 6.2% after retailer reported its same store sales declined by 4.2% in May. In contrast, another retailer, TJX Companies, gained 2.7% after posting a 8% surge in same store sales for May.GBP
British Petroleum has announced an attempt to sell joint Russian TNK-BP oil venture. The decision was made after “unsolicited interest” was expressed by an unnamed third party.JPY
Japan's Nikkei Stock Average tumbled on Friday after China reported it's official manufacturing activity index fell to 50.4 instead of expected smaller drop to 52.1. Moreover Yen kept appreciating against Euro, damping export stocks.CHF
The official SNB exchange rate for EUR/CHF is 1.2009 today; yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds decreased to 0.54%. 3-month LIBOR CHF stands at 0.10%, and is within the target range of 0.00-0.25%. Swiss SMI stock index has lost 1.33% since the opening bell, and is currently fluctuating around 5772 points. |
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY
"For now, the risk currencies remain very much under pressure because the last hope of the bulls was the U.S. economy and it is showing signs of slowdown just like the rest of the world."- GFT (based on Reuters) The Euro dived against the Japanese yen today, reaching an all-time low as concerns over Spain and Greece intensify. AUD/USD
"The interest rate cycle in Australia is certainly dovish. If we close under 96.90 U.S. cents tonight, the Australian dollar can go down to 93.80."- Nomura Holdings Inc. (based on Bloomberg) AUD/USD traded flat today as the latest US data showed the US labour market is still weak (8.2% act./8.1% est. unemployment rate). USD/CAD
"The weakness in the U.S. economy is bound to spur talk of the Federal Reserve stepping in with its bond-buying program to boost the economy. This would, however, flood the economy with dollars and weaken it."- WSJ The pair rallied today after the release of US macroeconomic data. NZD/USD
"The overall sentiment is likely to remain quite negative for both the Australian and New Zealand currencies."- National Australia Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg) NZD/USD traded flat today after the release of disappointing macroeconomic figures. |
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Expert Commentary
"Our EUR/USD forecast for the end of Q3 is 1.29."
A. Dudani, Currency Strategist at RBS, on the EUR/USD. >>"Against the Euro the Pound Sterling has been perceived as safe haven." "If we see that Greek exit leads to a major recession and collapse of commodity markets, then Russia would be hit very hard."
An expert from a Japanese investment bank shares his outlook for the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. >> |
Press Review
Europe
Euro zone unemployment hits record high, seen risingEuro zone unemployment has hit a record high, and job losses are likely to keep climbing as the bloc's devastating debt crisis eats away at businesses' ability to hire workers while indebted governments continue to cut staff. USA
Unemployment up in May as job growth falls offThe unemployment rate inched up to 8.2 percent in May as job growth fell sharply, according to government data released Friday morning, stoking fears that the recovery has stalled amid uncertainty over domestic policy and the fiscal crisis in Europe. Asia & Pacific
China Factory Surveys Signal Wider Economic WeaknessChina's economy betrayed signs of a broadening slowdown as surveys of its vast factory sector showed momentum eased in May, signaling a deeper-than-forecast deterioration in demand at home and abroad and the likelihood of more policy easing. |
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
At the beginning of the observed period (May 25 - May 31) the Japanese Yen remained calm, hovering near its base value for three days. However, afterwards demand for the Asian currency soared, driving the average price of the Yen in the market up by more than 2% within two days. |
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
The current and the three-year global economic sentiment indices deteriorated slightly in April to 0.49 and 0.64 points respectively. The six month economic sentiment index improved to 0.54 from 0.52 in March, according to a poll conducted by Dukascopy Bank SA. |
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Global Stock Market Review
S&P 500
S&P 500 index erased earlier gains on Wednesday as borrowing costs in Italy and Spain surged while Greece renewed worries it may leave Eurozone.Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average index lost ground on Wednesday as investor sentiment was ruined by developments in European troubled countries.NIKKEI 225
Japan's Nikkei Stock Average extended loss on Thursday on persisting Europe fears. |
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals were mixed on Thursday as Fed announced that new round of quantitative easing is highly unlikely despite softer than expected labour and manufacturing data.Industrial Metals
Industry metals tumbled on Thursday amid indications of cooling manufacturing ctivity worldwide and continuous economic uncertainty in the Eurozone.Energy
Energy markets apart from natural gas fell on Thursday as deteriorating situation in the Eurozone continued to dent demand prospects.Agriculture
Rural commodities slid on Thursday on broadly stronger US Dollar and improving weather conditions in the US and Russia. |
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Trade Pattern Idea
NZD/USD Emerging Pattern: Channel down
NZD/USD is continuing its bearish trend while forming a Channel Down pattern on the 4H chart. The pattern has 65% quality and 90% magnitude in 160-bar period. The pattern started when pair bounced from 0.808 and after testing resistance levels at 0.823 and 0.764 it has slowed down at 0.75 where the pair is currently trading. The Stochastic and the RSI indicators strongly point at possible bull market outbreak in 1W horizon. Long traders could focus on the resistance level at 0.755. If this level will be breached, next target could be at pattern resistance test level at 0.764. |
Economic Research
Commodity currency: Norwegian Krone
The Dukascopy Bank research department presents the final part of its research on commodity currencies. In the current issue we consider commodity sectors’ influence on Norwegian krone exchange rates. Norway is the second largest non-OPEC oil exporter, and energy products make up more than 50% of its exports. It gives us an opportunity to establish whether the exports’ share can be named as one of the relationship-defining factors. |
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Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:00 GMT. |
Recent Articles
Projections for the jobless rate in Portugal grows to 15.5%
Following 12.7% unemployment rate in the previous year, according to Vitor Gaspar, The Finance Minister of Portugal, the jobless rate in the country will increase to 15.5% in 2012 and to 16% in 2013. >>Capital spending grew by 3.5% in Japan
With the increase of Japan's capital spending by 3.5%, the more likely are the chances for the country's successful rehabilitation from the earthquake in 2011. >>Italian Unemployment rate reached its 12-year peak |
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| Disclaimer: This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. |
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