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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 28-07-2014 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 28/07/2014 07:20
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
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11:00 GMT Présentation de la plateforme. >>

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1. Investors splash the cash and turn passive
2. Market Research 
3. Technical Analysis: Trade Pattern Idea
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"We should brace for the euro breaking below key support at 1.34, given diverging U.S. and European monetary policies."
- IG Securities (based on Reuters)
Although the Euro refused to decline for two days, in the end the bears managed to push the currency below the monthly S2 level. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The Markit PMI suggests upside surprise potential."
- Rabobank
Despite the fact the most traded currency pair closed on Wednesday and Thursday unchanged, it was stuck at the lowest level in eight months on Friday, trading around 1.3449.
Expert Commentary
"Our longer term forecasts for a weaker Euro is contingent upon higher U.S. rates and the Fed normalisation."
- Geoffrey Yu, Senior FX Strategist, on the Euro zone
Leading indicators in Germany have certainly come off somewhat and other officials have indeed started to voice concern. >>
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Press Review
Currencies
NZ dollar slips as Key says kiwi over-valued
The New Zealand dollar fell to a month-low after Prime Minister John Key said he agreed with the Reserve Bank that the currency is over-valued...
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
The period was not particularly successful for the Euro, as the currency finished it with loses against half of its observed peers, and the EUR Index spent all five days below the base value.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
VIDEO version
June’s findings of Dukascopy Sentiment Index survey revealed that professors were particularly upbeat about the long term economic prospects. Europe enjoyed the biggest gain of confidence, with the corresponding index surging 0.12 points to the highest level this year.
Global Stock Market Review
Asia Pacific shares trade mixed in the week ending July 18
Asia Pacific markets traded rather mixed last week after trading in the red zone on Friday amid global selloff in the riskier assets. Investors chose to sit on the side-lines on rising concerns over the escalating political tensions in Ukraine and Middle East.
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Commodity Overview
Energy Futures Mixed amid Ukrainian Woes; Natural Gas Dives to 6-month low
WTI and Brent oil traded lower in the very beginning of the week but shot up in the following sessions amid supply concerns and signs of stronger demand. Speculation that a previous decline was excessive – WTI and Brent oil lost more than 3% in the preceding week – also gave impetus for a climb.
Trade Pattern Idea
CHF/SGD Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
The beginning of July was a starting point of a long-lasting depreciation performed by CHF/SGD. >>

Weekly GBP/USD Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
For now the overall outlook towards the Sterling is positive, since the boundaries of the channel up are intact. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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