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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 22-09-2014 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 22/09/2014 15:41
Community Forecasts
Community member rokasltu on EUR/USD
"The Euro/Dollar currency pair traded in a mixed environment during the previous trading week, as both opening level on Monday and closing level on Friday were almost equal. However, we could observe some important moves at some points of time. With the opening trading level of 1.2945, the single currency dropped down to 1.2859 on Tuesday, but managed to rebound the same day."
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
"The current yen weakness is slightly excessive. Abenomics entails the risk of ‘beggar thyself’ consequences and signs are already emerging."
- Kazumasa Iwata (based on Bloomberg)
EUR/JPY is trading around the major level at 140, after posting gains last week, when the pair touched the 141 level. The Euro seems supported around current levels, with the daily PP at 139.87 and previously mentioned major level at 140. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
During the Thursday independence referendum in Scotland, voters strongly rejected the proposals of Scottish National Party and decided to stay as a part of the United Kingdom. Votes were split as 45% for Yes campaign and 55% against being independent. However, there was a difference in regional preferences, as southern regions, which are closer to England, were more unanimous in staying in the U.K., while northern parts of Scotland preferred leaving the Union.
Expert Commentary
"I would say this situation is being seen by the Fed as well, since it is getting more dovish."
- Douglas C Borthwick, Managing director/Head:FX, on the US economy and USD
There has been a slew of positive economic data out of the U.S., with GDP growing 4.2% in the second quarter and the Dollar has recently been strengthening versus its major counterparts. Taking this into account, can we finally say that the U.S. economy is now back to normal? >>
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Press Review
Joanne Lindley, Steven McIntosh
Finance sector wages: explaining their high level and growth
Individuals who work in the finance sector enjoy a significant wage advantage. This wage premium has received increasing attention from researchers following the financial crisis...
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
After the persistent uptrend of September 8-12 week, the movements of the USD Index became less ordered as the gauge wound around the baseline. By the end of the period the index came to be the last among gain-posting currencies, with the dollar outperforming only a half of its observed peers.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
August was full of economic events from all around the globe which definitely have had an impact on professors’ perception of economic situation in the world. Experts’ six-month economic outlook continued its downward trend, reaching the lowest level since September 2013. In contrast, longer term sentiment index rebounded from the 12-month low reached in July, pointing to renewed optimism in the world economic strength three years from now.
Global Stock Market Review
European markets recovered as ECB started stimulus program
Equity market in Europe gained value during the previous trading week, as the European Central Bank began providing more stimulus to region’s economy under the Targeted Long-term Refinancing Operations program. In total, the first package amounted to 82.6 billion euro.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Prolong Their Decline
Gold continued its downfall, the yellow metal fell 1.21% extending its losses to three straight weeks. On Wednesday it touched the lowest level in eight months after the Federal Reserve increased its estimate for the target rate on overnight loans between banks on signs that the U.S. economic recovery is gaining pace. In the later part of the week the bullion dropped even lower.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/HKD Emerging Pattern: Descending Triangle
After a sharp decline of the single currency in the middle of previous week, the pair started forming a descending triangle pattern, filling space between two trend-lines. >>

Weekly EUR/PLN Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
Since Euro’s confrontation with the major support at 4.09 in June, the currency pair has been in a distinct up-trend. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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