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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 01-09-2014 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 01/09/2014 08:10
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
08:30 GMT UK Manufacturing PMI. >>
 
12:00 GMT Dukascopy Research Webinar. >>
1. Will ECB deploy new measures?
2. Stock Overview
3. Market Research USD
4. Technical Analysis: Trade Pattern Idea.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"A minority of market participants expect new policy at this week's meeting [of the ECB]. As a result, inaction may be greeted by temporary relief from euro depreciation, but we would see any short-term rallies as a selling opportunity."
- Barclays (based on CNBC)
The pair has finally arrived at 1.31 (2013 Sep low and weekly S1), a key to the last year’s low at 1.2750 (also monthly S3).
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Unemployment is at the heart of the macro dynamics that shape short and medium-term inflation."
- Margio Draghi, European Central Bank President
The latest Eurostat data release reported no change in unemployment rate across 18-nation Euro bloc in comparison with the previous month, therefore staying at 11.5% mark, with 18.4 million jobless people. In comparison with the same period a year ago, unemployment decreased from 11.9%, or by 725,000 persons.
Expert Commentary
"We have already seen that net Chinese imports of gold from Hong Kong have dropped during the last few months with regards of ending gold demand."
- Bernard Dahdah, Precious metals analyst, on the gold
We believe that price of gold would be dropping below the levels that currently see. With regards to the situation in Ukraine, if it becomes more complicated or escalates further, we consider that this could lift the price of gold further up. On the longer term perspective, I suppose the price of gold would be thrust lower by improving U.S. economic indicators. >>
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Press Review
Economy
German GDP Shrinking Signals Fading Euro-Area Powerhouse
Cracks are emerging in Germany’s once rock-solid economy as companies’ reluctance to invest bears out Mario Draghi’s warning that the euro-area recovery is in danger.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
The EUR Index spent the whole period below the baseline and held steadily among the worst three performers. In this regard, the index ended the period second, deepening the loses of the past periods with a –0.69% weekly change.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
VIDEO version
July Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index findings appeared to be the most pessimistic. The report revealed that while short-term global economic sentiment index fell moderately, three-year index plummeted by 0.12 points, the biggest decline since records began.
Global Stock Market Review
American equities surge amid strong manufacturing industry
Stock market in the United States behaved in line with its European counterparts, by posting a confident increase in value during the August 18-22 trading week. Stocks of largest local companies were actively driven by positive fundamental data, namely a rise in manufacturing PMI and rising home sales in the country.
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Commodity Overview
Industrial Metals Gain on Stronger-Than-Expected U.S. Housing Data
Aluminum added 3.16% last week, after a 1.43% decline in the week before. On Wednesday the metal reached the highest level in 18 months closing at $2057 a metric ton. However, at the second part of the week, after worse-than-expected manufacturing data from China, the light metal slipped lower and closed at $2046 on Friday. Meanwhile, Aluminum inventories decreased by 1.01%.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/AUD Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
After a sharp advance at the beginning of month the Euro started to slide towards 1.40 level; however, the bearish channel began to form on 25th of August. >>

Weekly CAD/CHF Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
Although the market has been distinctly bearish since last year’s summer, the support at 0.78 managed to initiate a strong recovery that possesses characteristics of a bullish channel. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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