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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 24-04-2014 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 24/04/2014 15:50
Featured Product: Community Forecasts
Community member Daytrader21 on EUR/USD
"There is no clear direction for EUR/USD as we're still stuck into some congestion zones. The implied volatility is at all time low, so the first sign for a change in the trend is for a resurrection in the IV, until than I'm expecting the current environment to persist. Also, fundamentally speaking ECB reluctance to tame down deflationary pressure will put limited pressure to the upside for EUR/USD as only higher exchange rate will force ECB to take action."
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY
"The big trigger was the news this morning about escalating tensions in the Ukraine, increasing demand for safe havens."
- Japan’s Central Bank (based on Bloomberg)
The pair has been consolidating below the monthly PP at 141.70 and above the 20-day SMA for the seventh day.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
USD
Japan and Europe are focusing on the inflation rate, the U.K. made a shift towards the remaining slack, stressing out the productivity and the wage growth. The U.S. economy, however, is a massive and complex system, thus it is difficult to find some indicator that will be pointing to a stronger economy.
Expert Commentary
"We have a situation, where the BoE and Mark Carney would prefer to postpone the first rate hike for as long as it is possible to do so."
- Neil Mellor, Senior Currency Strategist at BNY Mellon, on Pound and Britain’s economy
According to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), Britain’s economy has grown 0.9% in the first quarter of the year, making it the fastest rate of growth since the second quarter of 2010. What do really these figures mean and do you think that country’s economic recovery is still in its infancy? >>
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Press Review
BBC
Ukraine crisis: Obama accuses Russia of flouting deal
US President Barack Obama has accused Russia of flouting a deal on Ukraine.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: JPY
Both liquidity and volatility are usually reduced by market holidays in various countries and seasonal periods of subdued market interest, like the late summer and around the Easter and Christmas holidays.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
VIDEO version
The six-month global economic expectations improved by 0.02 in March and reached the level of 0.64, while the three-year sentiment index decreased for the second consecutive month and stood at 0.68, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed.
Global Stock Market Review
European shares
European shares rebounded from their weekly losses in the week ending April 17. The European stock markets finished higher on Thursday for a second consecutive day, as U.S. released better than expected manufacturing data and Goldman Sachs published better than forecast earnings results.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Slump on U.S., Abating Supply Concerns in South Africa
Gold started the week on the negative note, plunging the most in 16 weeks, over 2%, late Monday on talks that accelerating inflation in the U.S. leaves more room for the Fed to tighten its policy.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/CAD Emerging Pattern: Rising Wedge
Following an Apr 9-11 rally the currency pair seems to have entered the rising wedge... >>

Weekly CHF/JPY Emerging Pattern: Triangle
There is a high-quality and high-magnitude symmetrical triangle forming on the daily chart of CHF/JPY. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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