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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 20-08-2014 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 20/08/2014 07:44
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
12.00 GMT  Dukascopy Research Webinar. >>
1. Can Investment Save Europe?
2. Latest Release of Community Forecasts
3. Market research GBP
4. Technical analysis: Trade pattern idea
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The euro looks particularly weak. Investment into the euro zone could stall. I feel it's time to think that the euro will fall below $1.30."
- Kyosuke Suzuki, Societe Generale (based on CNBC)
EUR/USD, as suggested by the near-term technical indicators, has finally broken 1.3350 to the downside, which allowed it to re-test the 2013 Q4 low at 1.33.  
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"What is happening in geopolitics is tilting the balance toward having to implement further stimulus."
- Andrew Bosomworth, a senior portfolio manager at Pimco
Italian Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said he is convinced that the European Central Bank will take steps to boost growth and stem the threat of deflation in the Euro zone.
Expert Commentary
"Euro continues to remain fairly well supported, despite the low economic policy in the area."
- Michael Hewson, Market Analyst, on the Euro
In terms of effects on the EU economy it is probably not going to be very positive. The reason for that is the large trade volumes between two blocks. >>
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Press Review
Opinions
High Public Debt, Stagnation, Deflation and Unemployment: Policy Errors and a Way Forward
This note reviews monetary and fiscal policies adopted by Japan, the United States and Eurozone periphery countries during the global financial crisis...
Community Forecasts
Community member Giorgio3 on EUR/USD:
“The market is currently bullish and needs to get to 1.35042, which is 38% retracement from the current daily fib downswing retracement. So, it appears the market will go up today and then retrace slowly next week creating a bullish crown to 1.33719 and then after next week I anticipate a quick rally to 1.35042."
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
VIDEO version
July Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index findings appeared to be the most pessimistic. The report revealed that while short-term global economic sentiment index fell moderately, three-year index plummeted by 0.12 points, the biggest decline since records began.
Global Stock Market Review
European shares traded mixed as EU economy stagnates
Share prices of European companies traded in a mixed environment during the previous week, partly reversing the negative development of the weeks before. Economy of the Eurozone turned to stagnate in the April-June quarter, while German GDP declined 0.2%. Moreover, Russian sanctions against the EU and U.S. have negatively influenced the business confidence in the region.
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Commodity Overview
Palladium Reaches 13-Year High while Other Precious Metals Fall
Gold fell for the second straight week, losing 0.37% in the period. The yellow metal saw its open interest reaching the lowest level in five years, which sent the December futures 0.1% lower on Monday. Nevertheless, this fall was short-lived as the tensions in Russia resurfaced and pushed the prices upwards, when Ukraine would not let Russia’s humanitarian aid in their territory.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/AUD Emerging Pattern: Broadening Falling Wedge
The EUR/AUD currency cross has been on a down-trend since 8th of August; however, this Broadening Falling Wedge pattern started to form on 12th of August. >>

Weekly XAU/USD Emerging Pattern: Triangle
One can see the outlines of a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart of XAU/USD. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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