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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 17-04-2014 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 17/04/2014 16:13
Featured Product: Community Forecasts
Community member Bushidoleaf on EUR/USD
"Currently, EUR/USD is trading above 22days SMA. Parabolic and Stochastic also indicate bullish momentum. This indicates prices are likely to re-test previous resistance of 1.39667 level. However, prices have already breach 2 Fibo levels, it would be logical to expect some form of retracement early on in the week before prices continues its bullish run."
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
"Instead of being driven by fundamentals, the yen and the stock market are moving in relationship to each other this week, as investors adjust their positions ahead of the Easter holiday."
- Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank (based on Reuters)
It seems the pair has stabilized above the 55-day and 100-day SMA; however, at the same time it is struggling to break the weekly R1 and monthly PP that is just 15 pips higher at 141.70.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Even though a number of economic indicators points at further strengthening of the U.S. economy in the months to come, the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, said on Wednesday that she saw interest rates staying very low until the recovery is on a firmer footing and the nation’s economy fully employs available workforce and other resources.
Expert Commentary
"We actually do think that EUR/CHF will go up in the end, thus in the long term we forecast the pair to head towards 1.30."
- Jonathan Webb, Head of FX Strategy at Jefferies Bache, on Swiss Franc
Switzerland do have some concerns regarding its housing market as the mortgage lending has grown at a faster pace than the economy, and between 2008 and 2013 apartment prices increased by a quarter. Do you think that the central bank is paying enough attention to this matter? >>
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Press Review
Anne-Laure Delatte, Julien Fouquau, Richard Portes
Derivatives and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis
In retrospect, it is striking that the sovereign bond spreads of peripheral Eurozone countries surged while the economic conditions were gradually deteriorating.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: GBP
The Sterling index was one out of five major currencies that posted gains during the last five trading days, advancing 0.28%.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
VIDEO version
The six-month global economic expectations improved by 0.02 in March and reached the level of 0.64, while the three-year sentiment index decreased for the second consecutive month and stood at 0.68, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed.
Global Stock Market Review
European shares
European shares dropped on Friday, heading the major European stock indices to post weekly losses for the first time this month, following a sell-off on Wall Street.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Extend Gains on Ukraine Woes, South Africa’s Strikes
Gold performed better this week compared to the preceding one as the yellow metal was bolstered by the release of the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday. The report revealed that projections of the policy markets in relation to the looming rise in rates exaggerated the potential pace of policy tightening.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/HKD Emerging Pattern: Ascending Broadening Wedge
Since mid-January volatility of EUR/HKD has been on the rise... >>

Weekly GBP/USD Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
The current bullish momentum of GBP/USD may not be as strong as during last year’s... >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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