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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 23-07-2014 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 23/07/2014 07:50
Community Forecasts
Taxista on EUR/USD:
“Euro re-testing 1.3490 support level, I think it will be a further decline given that today (Friday) announced amount of inflation in the United States, which coincides with the end of the working week and after that we can expect next week with further growth potential for the Euro, from today's announcement see that $ USD has higher inflation than foreseen, and should be kept in mind that the $ USD to fall in the short term.”
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"EURUSD has scope to fall further as we target 1.32 on our trade recommendation."
- BNP Paribas (based on CNBC)
Regardless of the bullish indicators on a monthly time-frame, EUR/USD has finally closed beneath the major level at 1.35, meaning the currency pair has now confirmed its long-term bearish intentions. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The market is completely ignoring the European news."
- Brad Bechtel, the managing director of Faros Trading LLC
Since November 2013, when Mario Draghi slashed the minimum bid rate to 0.25% expectations for a fresh easing have been heating up till June 2014. However, it seems that investors have already lost their faith in the President, while news from the 18-nation bloc is having muted impact on the single currency.
Expert Commentary
"In the resuming tension in the Portuguese banking sector may keep the EUR/GBP on offer in a very near term."
- Roberto Mialich, Director Senior G10 FX Strategist, on the GBP
We remain relatively positive on the Sterling, because to our mind the BoE will start hiking rates after the summer. I anticipate that the first rate hike will take place as early as in November, which should continue to offer at least a cash into a downside for the GBP. >>
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Press Review
Currencies
British Pound Out of Room and Facing Trial by Event Risk
GBPUSD is facing an impending breakout – a break of necessity. The pair is currently facing a price range of around 40 pips while its average daily range over the past month...
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
After spending the entire previous period in the depreciation area, the U.S. dollar index managed to recover and have a successful week. The world’s largest economy’s currency strengthened against almost all of its observed peers, only failing to surpass the yen, which was on an uptrend throughput the whole period.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
VIDEO version
June’s findings of Dukascopy Sentiment Index survey revealed that professors were particularly upbeat about the long term economic prospects. Europe enjoyed the biggest gain of confidence, with the corresponding index surging 0.12 points to the highest level this year.
Global Stock Market Review
Asia Pacific shares trade mixed in the week ending July 18
Asia Pacific markets traded rather mixed last week after trading in the red zone on Friday amid global selloff in the riskier assets. Investors chose to sit on the side-lines on rising concerns over the escalating political tensions in Ukraine and Middle East.
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Commodity Overview
Energy Futures Mixed amid Ukrainian Woes; Natural Gas Dives to 6-month low
WTI and Brent oil traded lower in the very beginning of the week but shot up in the following sessions amid supply concerns and signs of stronger demand. Speculation that a previous decline was excessive – WTI and Brent oil lost more than 3% in the preceding week – also gave impetus for a climb.
Trade Pattern Idea
HKD/JPY Emerging Pattern: Rising Wedge
HKD/JPY has been locked in a narrowing trading range bounded by two steadily converging, upward-sloping lines for the last 64 hours. >>

Weekly GBP/USD Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
For now the overall outlook towards the Sterling is positive, since the boundaries of the channel up are intact. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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