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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 01-10-2014 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 01/10/2014 14:46
Community Forecasts
Community member khalidamassi on EUR/USD:
“Although that weekly close below 1.27 is very dangerous for pair’s bulls, but still I see the pair has already priced the upcoming negative data and should make retracement soon.”
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY
"The euro is suffering from a reversal of the capital inflows sparked by early fears about Fed tapering."
- BofA Merrill Lynch (based on Bloomberg)
The Euro has extended its decline to a second straight day, as the EUR/JPY cross is falling closer to the 138 level, where the weekly S1 and 100-day SMA is located. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
USD
Business activity in the Midwest region of the U.S. remains very optimistic; however, pace of expansion decreased slightly in September. The benchmark Chicago purchasing managers’ index dropped to 60.5 points, down from 64.3 points in August. Economists estimated the indicator at 62 points’ mark. Still, reading above 50 indicates growth in economic activity of this region, while figure below it points on slump.
Expert Commentary
"A sharp deterioration in real economic indicators, such as retail sales and industrial production, could lead to increasing speculations on further easing – and would weaken the Yen."
- Esther Maria Reichelt, FX Strategist, on the Yen perspectives
Recently, we can see that the USD/JPY has moved upwards quite considerably, although from a fundamental perspective nothing has changed on side of the Yen. I suppose a large part of the movement has been due to the U.S. Dollar recent strength. >>
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Press Review
Top Videos
Yen, Euro Show Signs of Weakness
Bloomberg’s Adam Johnson has your morning brief of overnight news covering the most important global developments, market news and data on “Bloomberg Surveillance."
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: JPY
Almost a month-long decrease of the yen index, caused by the Japan’s Pension Fund reform, seemed to have come to an end, and the past periods saw it start to recover. During the past five trading days the JPY Index was sharing the second-best’s status with the CAD gauge, but disappointing Canadian GDP pushed the Loonie down, and the yen ended the period losing only to the Greenback.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
August was full of economic events from all around the globe which definitely have had an impact on professors’ perception of economic situation in the world. Experts’ six-month economic outlook continued its downward trend, reaching the lowest level since September 2013. In contrast, longer term sentiment index rebounded from the 12-month low reached in July, pointing to renewed optimism in the world economic strength three years from now.
Global Stock Market Review
American stock market lost value despite strong GDP advance
Equity market in North America showed an unusual performance during the week ended September 26, as strong statistical data from the U.S. was not able to heat up stock markets in the country, as they deteriorated after stable gains a week before.
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Commodity Overview
Industrial Metals Fall as Uncertainty Surrounds China’s Housing Market
Aluminum price decreased 1.63% as China’s housing market is under pressure, which is the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals. According to China Beige Book International, China’s economy was stuck in “low gear” this quarter.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/DKK Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
American currency is trading in a distinct up-trend against Danish Krona since Tuesday, September 23. >>

Weekly EUR/CAD Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
The Euro has been in a clear down-trend since the end of the first quarter. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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