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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 16-05-2012 - Afternoon
| Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report Published: 16/05/2012 18:33 | |
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Stoxx Europe 600 index have dropped for third consecutive day and reached the lowest level since the start of this year as specialists speculate that elections in Greece could take place as early as 10 of June. The index lost 0.5% of its value by noon in London and around 10% from its peak this year in mid-March.USD
Facebook increases the share offering by 25% to 421.2M shares to collect near $16B. At the offering's price of $34-$38 per share Facebook is rushing towards the largest technology IPO in the history. Production of utilities, mines and factory's in the U.S. surpassed expected 0.6% level and increased by 1.1% in April.GBP
The number of unemployed people for January-March decreased to 2.63 million, 45,000 down on the quarter, the Office for National Statistics reported. Thus, the unemployment rate was 8.2 percent of economically active population, by 0.2 percent less than in the previous quarter. This information, however, should be viewed with caution, since there are 1.4 million of part-time workers who did not manage to land a full-time position.CHF
The official SNB exchange rate for EUR/CHF is 1.2010 today; yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds decreased to 0.65%. 3-month LIBOR CHF stands at 0.11%, and is within the target range of 0.00-0.25%. Swiss SMI stock index has gained 0.55% since the opening bell, and is currently fluctuating around 5898 points.JPY
Japan's core machine orders contracted by 2.8% in March, beating the expectations for a 3.5% fall. Considering yearly changes, core machine orders dropped by 1.1% in March as compared to a 4.4% increase projected. Meanwhile, core machinery orders are likely to gain 2.5% in Q2 of 2012 as compared to the preceding quarter. |
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
Daily maximum: 1.2758Daily minimum: 1.2681 EUR/USD plunged today for the 8th consecutive day after Greece announced another election as current Greek parties couldn't agree on forming the government. Daily Resistance: 1.2763; 1.2812/30; 1.2931/47. Daily Support: 1.2645/42; 1.2580; 1.2486. Daily Bias: Strongly bearish. GBP/USD
Daily maximum: 1.5988Daily minimum: 1.5890 GBP/USD declined today as the US housing starts (0.72M act./0.69M est.) rose more than expected while US building permits came out almost in line with analysts' expectations (0.72M act./0.73M est.), suggesting that the US property market is gradually improving. Daily Resistance: 1.5998/1.6015; 1.6106/11; 1.6150/62. Daily Support: 1.5959; 1.5892/69; 1.5780. Daily Bias: Strongly bearish. USD/JPY
Daily maximum: 80.55Daily minimum: 80.27 The US Dollar appreciated against Japan's yen after the release of the US housing starts data (0.72M act./0.69M est.), indicating that the US economic recovery keeps a moderate rate. Daily Resistance: 80.25/49; 80.90/98; 81.45. Daily Support: 80.11; 79.84; 79.61. Daily Bias: Bullish. USD/CHF
Daily maximum: 0.9470Daily minimum: 0.9414 The greenback continued its rally against the Swiss Franc as the US labor market seems to be improving afte the release of the US housing starts data (0.72M act./0.69M est.). Daily Resistance: 0.9466; 0.9487; 0.9510. Daily Support: 0.9405; 0.9359; 0.9297. Daily Bias: Strongly bullish. |
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Expert Commentary
"We are now expecting AUD/USD at the year end at around 97, a continued move below parity."
Emma Lawson, Senior Currency Strategist at NAB, on the Aussie Dollar. >>"If Greece left the Eurozone, the Eurozone would become more stable." "Economically, Greece's membership was always somewhat problematic."
Bernd Hayo, Professor at the Philipps University of Marburg, on the ECB monetary policy. >> |
Press Review
Europe
Concerned about a euro exit, Greeks pull funds from banksGreece's president spoke of "fear that could develop into panic" at the country's banks in the weeks before fresh elections that could precipitate Athens exit from the euro zone. USA
U.S. Stock Futures Fluctuate; J.C. Penney Sinks, GM GainsU.S. stock-index futures fluctuated between gains and losses as speculation reports today may show increases in housing starts and industrial production offset concern Greece will be forced to exit the euro. Asia & Pacific
China's Stagnant Bank Lending Spooks InvestorsChinese bank stocks fell on Thursday in Hong Kong after a report by Shanghai Securities News that new lending by China’s four biggest stateowned banks was flat in the first two weeks of May. |
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
The preceding week the US Dollar has been resilient to the incoming news thus its fluctuations were mild and indistinct. Nonetheless, against the background of growing concerns over the stability of the Euro zone the Greenback began to be in more demand among the investors and, as a result, appreciated by nearly 2% throughout the last five trading days. |
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
The current and the three-year global economic sentiment indices deteriorated slightly in April to 0.49 and 0.64 points respectively. The six month economic sentiment index improved to 0.54 from 0.52 in March, according to a poll conducted by Dukascopy Bank SA. |
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Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. |
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals fell on Tuesday ahead of key meeting of the Fed due on Wednesday as hopes for the new round of QE in the US are weak. Furthermore, political turmoil in Greece continued to impact commodity markets.Industrial Metals
Industry metals were mixed on Tuesday as Greece’s uncertainty continued to dent risk-sentiment among investors.Energy
Energy commodities were solid on Tuesday amid positive economic data form Germany. Energy markets are likely to be volatile in the next sessions ahead of FOMC.Agriculture
Rural commodities rallied on Tuesday despite broadly stronger US Dollar. Deteriorating weather conditions in the US provided fresh stimulus for the commodity pack. |
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Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/GBP Emerging Pattern: Chanel Down
EUR/GBP broke its two-year low and has continued to decrease forming a channel down pattern on the 4H chart. The formation has 53% quality along with 46% magnitude within 83 bars. The price was consolidated in a downward channel touching the pattern’s lines many times, but it still is decreasing inside the pattern borders. Present bias on the 4H and daily timeframes is neutral while indicators on weekly timeframe give bearish signals. Bears may focus their attention on the pattern’s 0.8005 level test. If the price rebounds, the initial target for short traders could be around 0.7930, where the pattern’s support level resides. |
Economic Research
Commodity currency: Norwegian Krone
The Dukascopy Bank research department presents the final part of its research on commodity currencies. In the current issue we consider commodity sectors’ influence on Norwegian krone exchange rates. Norway is the second largest non-OPEC oil exporter, and energy products make up more than 50% of its exports. It gives us an opportunity to establish whether the exports’ share can be named as one of the relationship-defining factors. |
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| Disclaimer: This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. |
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