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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 09-08-2012 - Afternoon
| Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report Published: 09/08/2012 18:21 | |
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Featured Product
Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, on the Loonie
From a shorter term point of view, it is better for the market if the Canadian Dollar is a little bit closer to parity. The move we are seeing right now has been supported by slight widening out in interest rate differentials at the past few weeks. Interest rate spreads have moved up little bit in a Canadian Dollar’s favour. |
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY
"Those fundamentals are strong relative to the rest of the world but there is also an element right now of a safe haven premium for the Canadian dollar. We can use it to grow our economy, invest it in new productive assets and industries, or we can build houses. Our view is we should do the former."- Mark Carney, Bank of Canada Gov. (based on Bloomberg) Pair has been depreciating for third consecutive day now, but technical indicators on 1W outlook allow us to expect recovery of the pair starting from the next week. |
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
GBP
The Sterling posted mixed trading versus its major peers as U.K.'s trade deficit expanded to GBP4.3 billion, exceeding economists' expectations of GBP3.1 billion deficit. The Pound traded at 0.7883 versus the Euro, 1.5245 versus the Swiss Franc, 1.5655 versus the U.S. Dollar and 122.86 versus the Yen. |
Expert Commentary
"The Canadian Dollar is probably looking a little bit overdone at these levels."
Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, on the Loonie:From a shorter term point of view, it is better for the market if the Canadian Dollar is a little bit closer to parity. The move we are seeing right now has been supported by slight widening out in interest rate differentials at the past few weeks. Interest rate spreads have moved up little bit in a Canadian Dollar’s favour. >> |
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Press Review
Europe
Weekly Jobless Claims Fall, Trade Gap Drops 10 PercentThe number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week while the trade deficit in June was the smallest in 1-1/2 years, hopeful signs for the struggling economy. |
Market Research
Currency index & Volatility: USD
Risk aversion intensity, which has persisted lately, has weakened, since safe haven currencies (JPY and USD) were the main “losers” for the last five trading days. However, we still may not predicate change of the sentiment, being that there is a lull in price action (decreased volatility) and no distinct pattern is observable at the moment. |
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Current global economic outlook
The global six-month and three-year economic expectations worsened significantly in July. Gauges assessing the economic outlooks fell to 0.44 and 0.58, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed. The current economic outlook was unchanged from the previous month at 0.43 points. |
Global Stock Market Review
Nikkei 225
Japanese equities surged on hopes for easing in China. China’s inflation dropped to 30-month low in July, thus creating a room for further monetary policy loosening. However, disappointing Japan’s core machinery orders and consumer confidence data capped the upward trend of the stocks. Nikkei 225 Index rallied 1.1% to trade at 8,978.60. |
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals were weak on Wednesday as soft physical demand from India weighted down on the commodity group. However, speculation that the ECB and Fed will loosen their monetary policies limited losses of the precious metals. |
Trade Pattern Idea
GBP/USD Emerging Pattern: Triangle
GBP/USD is narrowing its price range and has formed a Triangle pattern on the 1H chart. >>
Weekly USD/CAD Emerging Pattern: Triangle |
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Economic Research
Business Cycle: The US Equities
The Dukascopy Bank research department presents the first part of the research on assets performance within a business cycle. The research gives investors an opportunity to estimate the behaviour of several asset classes under changing economic conditions. |
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:00 GMT. |
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| Disclaimer: This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. |
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