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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 09-07-2012 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 09/07/2012 18:42
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In light of deteriorating economic situation in the US, Dukascopy Bank SA interviewed Professor Lima and discussed various issues such as the Great Depression, the US debt, and measures to stimulate the economic recovery.
According to the best numbers I could find, in the first quarter of 2012 the U.S. Debt to GDP ratio was 100.74%. That scares me. France, for example, only has a debt to GDP ratio of about 90%. Germany is at 85%. Italy is around 110% and our old pal Greece is at 150%. 
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY
"There is nothing too positive expected from the Eurogroup [finance ministers] meeting. There is a fairly pessimistic tone towards the euro."
- CIBC (based on CNBC)
The common European currency paired Friday losses today against the Japanese yen, thus the pair might attempt to reiterate bullish correction and move toward 98.60 (PP Weekly).
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Mariano Rajoy, the Prime Minister of Spain, might announce new austerity measures in the upcoming days. Currently the government faces the third largest budget deficit in the Eurozone, EUR 95.5 billion in 2011. Due to increasing risks ten-year public bonds' interest rate has reached 7.06% on Monday, July 4. To deal with the deficit the government is considering such policies as rising taxes for food, public transport, water, restaurants and hotels, as well as reducing public wages and unemployment subsidies.
Expert Commentary
"The [US] economy will begin to recover in January, 2013 if Mr. Romney wins the election in November."
In light of deteriorating economic situation in the US, Dukascopy Bank SA interviewed Professor Lima and discussed various issues such as the Great Depression, the US debt, and measures to stimulate the economic recovery. >>
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Press Review
Europe
Dealers Declining Bernanke Twist Invitation
Wall Street banks are increasingly choosing to hoard their U.S. bonds rather than sell them to the Federal Reserve as speculation grows that a slowing economy and global financial turmoil will only make them more dear.
Market Research
Currency index & Volatility: EUR
Bearish trend, which has been adopted by the single European currency at the beginning of the previous week, persisted until the very end of the observed period. Global downturn, coupled with anticipation of ECB’s benchmark interest rate cut, proved to be the main factors, causing such pronounced downward movement of Euro’s value along with passage of time.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Current global economic outlook
The current and six-month global economic expectations deteriorated in May. Gauges assessing the economic outlooks fell to 0.47 and 0.48, Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed. The three-year economic outlook improved to 0.65 from 0.64 in April .
Global Stock Market Review
S&P 500
US stocks slid on Friday after news about dismal performance of the US labour market last month. The data spurred risk-aversion among investors as it may signal stagnation of the world’s largest economy. From another side of the Atlantics headlines were also disappointing as borrowing costs of peripheral countries of the single currency union rose again.
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Commodity Overview
Energy
Energy commodities declined on Friday on rallying greenback and persistent demand concerns. US economic data continued to disappoint, with US non-farm payrolls growing less than expected in June and services sector’s weakening. 
Brent oil followed bearish trend on demand worries. However, supply uncertainties amid oil workers’ strikes in Norway and threats from Iran limited losses of the commodity.

Trade Pattern Idea
NZD/USD Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
The pattern started when the pair bounced from 0.7722 and after testing pattern’s resistance band at 0.8017 and 0.8076 it has slowed down at 0.7937 where the pair is currently trading. Technical indicators on aggregate point at bullish market development on the 1D outlook, indicating that the pair will continue to follow the general trend. >>

Weekly EUR/JPY Emerging Pattern: Descending Triangle
The pattern started on the 31st of October, 2011, when the pair rebounded from 111.635 and after testing pattern’s resistance levels at 111.444 on 21st of March, 2012, and at 101.638 on 21st of June, 2012, it has slowed down at 97.8 where the pair is currently trading. >>
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Economic Research

Commodity currency: Norwegian Krone
The Dukascopy Bank research department presents the final part of its research on commodity currencies. In the current issue we consider commodity sectors’ influence on Norwegian krone exchange rates. Norway is the second largest non-OPEC oil exporter, and energy products make up more than 50% of its exports. It gives us an opportunity to establish whether the exports’ share can be named as one of the relationship-defining factors.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:00 GMT
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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