Credibility of Research Analyst' Prediction/forecast/news Analysis
There are plenty of websites publishing and forums discussing about forecast on currency pair’s possible moves. Though some of them make deliberate method to explain reasons for current situation and possible reaction for upcoming events but most of them put very complicated, colorful diagrams, trendlines, moving averages etc. which appears to be sophisticated analysis for new comers. By which they will try to attract many visitors to their web page that gives them benefit of revenue generation by advertisements. To name a few of the websites are Actionforex, Forexmillion, Forexcycle, Forexstreet, etc. and still many. The only intention of these website is to attract maximum users and from where the traffic is coming from.
Inexperienced traders who are having less than 2 years of experience, in the beginning of their career they will try to find what others are talking about the currency pairs and economic events. They will always keep a watch on those above mentioned websites. After reading those analysis and predictions they will have something in their mind it can be some target numbers for e.g. some predictor says Eurusd will reach so and so levels after the economic events and similarly others will give their own opinions.
I am very much sure after reading those predictions. Somewhere in your brain some numbers will get embraced or printed. Which will often comes and goes, it will interrupt, confuse or may give you overconfidence decision making ideas, and you will probably think that price will not break that particular level (that is actually opinion of an analyst). All these thoughts come to your mind while trading is going on.
I will show with some real examples how traders are expressing their frustrations and what reactions they are getting. I believe similar experience might be happening to lot of new traders.
Do not you think it is some kind of psychological issue? I definitely think it is simply a psychological issue which will tend to make flawed decision even though your own technical and fundamental analysis is perfect. The reasons for the belief may be you believe those websites are perfect, you think that they are best in the industry, or sometimes their predictions match the market scenario but not always.
Not just that traders visit only the websites but also the traders will be hanging out in forums which meant for discussing Eurusd, Gbpusd pairs etc. I have seen many such discussion forums that are utterly nonsense discussion will be happening, few traders will be distracting many other serious traders in the forum, some fellow shares he made 1000pips in 2 days, someone will predict eurusd will move 200pips in next London session, all these are completely senseless comments, many new traders take that comments into considerations and they will get spoil their day. You will completely go out of focus in your trade. Sometimes it becomes addiction to visit analyst websites and forums which will take few weeks time and effort to get rid of it.
Things you should keep in mind that websites and forums are there to publish very general information and they are just there because they make money by advertisements on their website. Therefore never trust such analysis or prediction. You cannot take that into your mind. I suggest never read it at all, if you read it once also it is still a problem as I said it is a psychological phenomenon that Works through in your subconscious mind and affects your decision making.
Now the question is what reading habits traders should develop and ignore? I definitely think you should develop habit of reading where the exact macroeconomic events and news are published. You should be updated when and what will happen in the coming weeks, the exact timings according to your country time. There are paid services for keeping track of macroeconomic events and news. You may become member of it. The one I know is talking-Forex and other is Bloomberg many might know it but costly.
In conclusion I do not say all websites are making irresponsible analysis and prediction for e.g. a news analysis post in your broker’s website will be benefits to read, your broker might have hired a best qualified analyst to write it. Similarly analysis published in top bank’s websites will be useful. Finally you will have to make your own judgment after you visit the website and forums about its credibility of contents and discussions.